07/31/2012 02 Preliminary Five-Year Financial Forecast C €f
BUSINESS OF THE CITY COUNCIL
YAKIMA, WASHINGTON
AGENDA STATEMENT
Item No. pR
For Meeting of: July 31, 2012
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ITEM TITLE: Discussion on Preliminary Five -Year Financial Forecast
SUBMITTED BY: Tony O'Rourke, City Manager
Cindy Epperson, Finance Director
CONTACT
PERSON /TELEPHONE:
SUMMARY EXPLANATION:
See attached.
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SUBMITTAL: City Manager
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ATTACHMENTS:
Click to download
❑ 5 year plan
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To: The Honorable Mayor and Members of City Council
From: Tony O'Rourke, City Manager
Cindy Epperson, Director of Finance and Budget
Subject: Preliminary Five - Year Financial Forecast
For your review and consideration we have prepared the following Preliminary Five -Year Financial
Forecast. This is the first step in developing our Five -Year Financial Plan. In this document we have not
attempted to identify new revenue streams or changes to existing city services. We have made these
projections based on an assumption of continuing business as usual — with our current structure,
services, operating practices, etc. The intent is to give us all a common baseline and a look at the
financial consequences of maintaining the status quo. With this preliminary forecast, we have a
common platform to begin discussing how to achieve fiscal sustainability and our strategic priorities.
The Five Year Financial Plan that will be developed from this initial Projection and our current
discussions will become an integral part of planning the City's future financial strategy and a key tool
in ensuring long -term fiscal sustainability. A Five Year Plan allows the City to look into the future and
see what looming deficits may lie ahead if no preemptive actions are taken. It allows the City to
adequately prepare in advance to meet any financial challenges by developing long -term solutions
rather than short -term fixes.
By providing a forecast of revenues and expenditures over a five -year period (FY 2012 -FY 2016), the
Five Year Financial Plan will assist the City Council in meeting the following key goals:
➢ Ensuring a financially sustainable future.
➢ Preservation of the City's core services.
➢ Commitment to funding infrastructure; facilities and rolling stock.
➢ Addressing Strategic Plan priorities.
The Five -Year Financial Plan is designed to focus on the City's General Government (i.e. tax - supported
funds, which include General; Streets and Traffic Engineering; and Parks and Recreation Funds); given
these are core to the City's ability to provide essential services and capital improvements. The balance
of the City's other funds will be addressed during the budget process.
The economic downturn continues to challenge the City, as well as the State budget. The State budget
crisis is likely to grow over the next few years if required action to structurally balance the budget is
not achieved.
Page 1 1
GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE
The revenue forecast represents an analysis of the economic factors driving the City's revenue base and
specific revenue sources available to the City The City's core General Government revenues are
increasingly affected by the economy. The financial plan revenue projections reflect various
assumptions about the future economic environment based on national, state and local economic
forecasts. The General Government revenue forecast takes into consideration that the City's economy
will lag behind the recovery of the State and National economy based on the following:
➢ The unemployment rate for Yakima County is over 10% (10.8% in May, 2012).
The Property Tax levy is capped at 1% growth plus new construction which has been negatively
affected by the real estate market decline.
➢ Total taxable sales are projected to increase marginally as the economy improves over the next 5
years
➢ Utility customers are practicing conservation measures to manage their total bills. The city -
owned water and wastewater utilities are experiencing reducing consumption, and hard -line
telephone services are being eliminated as consumers convert to cellular only
➢ With the decline in the real estate market there has been a correlated decline in the number of
building and planner permits submitted to the City negatively impacting permit fee revenues
➢ The State budget crisis is expected to continue to impact local municipalities across the state.
The following chart depicts the 2012 projected budget in generalized categories
Fines, Forfeitures
Charges for andMisc
Services /Interfund $3536,100 Property Tax
Governmental $6,241,655 $15,042,840
Payments
$3,708,730
Other Taxes, •
Licenses, Permits
$2,056,240
Utility Tax
$13,944,000 Sales Tax
$15,302,505
Page 12
The following projection summarizes the General Governments major revenue source totals and
growth for the next five fiscal years
General Government Revenue
Growth Forecast
' 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue Category Forecast Forecast Forecast I Forecast Forecast
Property Tax 1 3% 2 0% 2 0% 2 0% 2 0%
Sales Tax 0 7% 2 0% 1 5% 1 5% 2 0%
Utility Tax 17 2% 0 2% 0 5% 1 0% 1 0%
Other Taxes, Licenses, Permits (8 5 %) 0 7% 0 7% 0 9% 0 9%
Governmental Payments (7 2 %) 1 9% 0 4% 0 3% 0 5%
Charges for Services /Interfund (3 6 %) 0 0% 0 2% 0 4% 0 4%
Fines, Forfeitures and Misc 5 0% 0 5% 0 5% 0 5% 0 5%
Property Tax
2012 201 2014 2015 —1 2016
Forecast For Forecast Forecast Forecast
Property Tax $15,042,840 $15 ,343,697 $15,650,571 $15,963,582 $16,282,854
Growth Forecast 1 3% 2 0% 2 0% 2 0% 2 0%
Property tax is the city's largest revenue source, representing 25 8% of the General Fund revenue for
2011. The City sets the amount of the levy each year within limits set by state law. The tax is then
distributed among the taxpayers by the assessed taxable value of all real property within the City
Projections andAssumptzons
The Property Tax levy is limited to 1% per year increase due to a citizen initiative from several years
ago. However, the increase in revenue is generally higher than the 1% because new construction and
annexations add to the base We are not anticipating any annexations in the near future, but new
construction is increasing ever so slightly again, and is estimated to add 1% annually to the property
tax roles.
Retail Sales and Use Tax
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Sales Tax $15,302,505 $15,608,555 $15,842,683 $16,080,324 $16,401,930
Growth Forecast 0 7% 2 0% 1 5% 1 5% 2 0%
Page 1 3
The City of Yakima receives 0.85% (or about 10.4 %) of the 8.2% sales and use tax collected within the
city under this revenue source (an additional 0 7% is currently received for restricted purposes — 0 3%
for transit, and 0.4% for criminal justice purposes). This tax represents 21.9% of the General Fund
revenue for 2011.
The portion of sales and use tax restricted to providing criminal justice related services represents 4.5%
of the General Fund revenue There are two taxes — a 0 3% and a 0 1% The 0 3% tax on sales was
originally passed in November, 2004, and is based on sales inside the County only - the proceeds are
divided between the County and Cities on a predefined formula under which the County receives 60%
and all cities within the County share the remaining 40% The 0 1% tax was originally approved by
voters in 1992 - proceeds are allocated by the state between the County and Cities based on a
predefined formula
Projections and Assumptions
Sales tax history shows a large drop in 2009 after a decade of healthy growth It has been pretty flat in
2010 and 2011, but has started trending up in the first 6 months of 2012 (about 2.4% over last year at the
same time). The projection is held to 2% for 2013 and slightly upward thereafter. Growth in this
category is expected to slowly increase over the next several years, in anticipation of a recovering
economy.
Utility Tax
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Utility Tax $13,944,000 $13,970,283 $14,040,134 $14,180,535 $14,322,341
Growth Forecast 17 2% 0 2% 0 5% 1 0% 1 0%
Utility tax represents approximately 20.0% of the General Fund revenue. It comes from taxes on
utilities, both City- operated and outside utilities This revenue varies according to weather conditions,
consumer conservation efforts and utility rates.
Projections and Assumptions
Utility tax rates were increased 6% by the Council effective in February 2012 to increase Public Safety
funding Certain rates were also increased which will of course increase the tax revenue However, as
consumers learn to conserve and as we have had mild weather for a couple of years now, the revenue
has actually trended down in a few areas The City's bond covenants require that the water,
wastewater and irrigation systems be maintained adequately to serve our citizens throughout the life of
the bonds. Rate studies are done every 3 to 5 years to help us determine that we have adequate
financial resources to maintain the system These rates will anticipate necessary capital replacement,
improvements or potential mandated upgrades by regulatory agencies.
Page 1 4
Other Taxes, Licenses, and Permits
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Other Taxes, Licenses, Permits $2,056,240 $2,070,921 $2,085,720 $2,103,463 $2,121,367
Growth Forecast (8 5 %) 0 7% 0 7% 0 9% 0 9%
This category includes business licenses, gambling taxes and building licenses and permits,
representing only about 3.4% of total revenue.
Projectzons and Assumptzons
The business license fee has been unchanged since the late 1980s, when these fees where increased so
that the City could participate in building the SunDome Any change would just be the number of
businesses and /or employees operating within the City limits. Gambling tax has been rather steady
over the past several years. Building permits dropped during the recent recession, but the major school
rebuilding projects have shored up this revenue in 2011 and 2012 Future revenues are conservatively
projected to grow just slightly less than 1% over the next 5 years.
Governmental Payments
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Governmental Payments $3,708,730 $3,779,276 $3,793,371 $3,805,529 $3,823,666
Growth Forecast (7 2 %) 1 9% 0 4% 0 3% 0 5%
Intergovernmental revenue makes up about 6.2% of the total pie. The major component of this category
is state - shared revenue, including the liquor taxes and profits, gas tax, and criminal justice
distributions. Also included is the contract with Yakima School District for school resource officers,
and Yakima County for the joint purchasing agreement, among other grants /agreements
Projectzons and Assumptzons
Although the anticipation going into 2012 was that the State would cut much of this revenue to balance
its budget, it did not come to pass. Instead, a voter initiative to privatize state liquor sales actually
increased the amount to be distributed to local governments to maintain local criminal justice systems
Part of the increase in 2013 is tied to the School District's commitment to fund 2 school resource officers
as the COPS grant winds down. Because of potential long -term issues for the State's budget, this
revenue is projected to remain rather flat through the next several years
Page 1 5
Charges for Services /Interfund
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Charges for Services /Interfund $6,241,655 $6,241,655 $6,255,844 $6,278,006 $6,303,539
Growth Forecast (3 6 %) 0 0% 0 2% 0 4% 0 4%
Charges for Services represent 10 4% of the 2012 General Government revenue The majority of this
revenue comes from fees paid by other City funds in order to allocate the costs of general fund support
services (legal, administration, purchasing, accounting, payroll, etc) These services are billed to each
department based on a percentage of the total amount of costs required to be recovered from other
funds. Also included are certain charges for services to the public such as Parks program fees.
Projections and Assumptzons
The State Auditors have issued new requirements for the allocation of City Service charges. In
preliminary analysis it appears that we may not be able to recover such costs as easily as in the past
This revenue is held constant until 2014 pending further research and discussion with the State
Auditor Outside charges trend slightly upward
Fines, Forfeitures and Miscellaneous
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Fmes, Forfeitures and Misc $3,536,100 $3,553,781 $3,571,549 $3,589,407 $3,607,354
Growth Forecast 5 0% 0 5% 0 5% 0 5% 0 5%
Fine and Forfeiture revenue is derived primarily from criminal fines, noncriminal penalties, and
parking violations, and represents 2.7% of the 2011 General Fund revenue. This also includes the
transfer of 3 5% of water, wastewater and refuse utility tax designated for Parks and Recreation
programs from General Fund. Other miscellaneous revenue consists primarily of interest income from
investing available cash balances.
Projections and Assumptzons
Prior to the recession, interest income was 3 times more than it is today These projections are held
mostly flat with just minor increases in miscellaneous sources
Page 1 6
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
The primary costs of the General Government expenditures are for salaries and wages, and personnel
benefits, which combined comprise 70 7% of the General Government expenditure budget
The following chart depicts 2012 projected budget in generalized categories
Interfund
Payment for
Intergovernmental
Services
Services
$2,290,100
$5,034,246
Services &
Charges
$6,763,391
Supplies,
Equipment,
Miscellaneous
$2,844,986
Personnel Benefits
$10,085,506
Salaries & Wages
$32,774,258
The following chart shows projected General Government expenditures for the next five fiscal years by
major category.
General Government Expenditure
Growth Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue Category Forecast I Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Salaries & Wages 3 4% 4 3% 1 9% 0 8% 0 8%
Personnel Benefits 11 2% 7 2% 7 3% 8 0% 8 0%
Supplies, Equipment, Misc (5 9 %) 1 0% 1 4% 1 9% 1 9%
Services & Charges 5 9% 1 0% 1 5% 2 0% 2 0%
Intergovernmental Services 0 6% 1 0% 2 0% 2 0% 2 0%
Interfund Payment for Services 0 4% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Page 1 7
Salaries & Wages
The primary costs of the General Government expenditures are for salaries and wages, which reflect
the service nature of local government Salary costs account for 55 0% of general government
expenditures.
Projectzons and Assumptzons
Salaries and wages have been held constant with only minor adjustments for step increases. Police and
Fire salaries reflect estimates for recently negotiated increases Most employee classes have not had a
salary increase in several years although benefit deductions have increased, resulting in lower take
home pay across the board. Beginning in 2013, the COPS Hiring Grant begins to run out. Additional
annual police salaries will be $305,000 in 2013, $277,000 in 2014 and $7,100 in 2015 The increase in total
annual salary due to expired grant funding is $589,000. There are some associated revenue increases
that occur earlier in the cycle in that certain outside agencies (Yakima School District and the Yakima
Housing Authority) are paying the full salaries of 3 of the 7 officers that were funded on the grant
These revenues are included in the Projection as Intergovernmental Services.
Personnel Benefits
The second largest City expense is the cost of personnel benefits. These benefits include Social Security,
pension costs, and medical, dental, vision and life insurance Personnel Benefit costs represent
approximately 15 7% of the General Fund expense The City is self insured for its medical, dental and
vision; unemployment; and workers' compensation programs for all eligible employees, which is the
least expensive way to provide these benefits
Pro) ectzons and Assumptzons
Benefit costs are anticipated to rise at a rate double the CPI Although certain benefit costs such as
Social Security have not increased at all, health care costs will potentially increase at a rate of 6.5% to
10% Co -pays and incentives were designed into the plan in 2012 to help mitigate the cost increases
These changes have only been marginally successful and current year claims have eaten into the health
plan reserve. When outside plans have been considered, the estimated rates have been considerably
higher The City pays a variable contribution rate, dependent upon bargaining group The most
generous plans are in Police and Fire although both groups have begun to share more of the cost of
their plans
As health care is the largest component of personnel benefits and is estimated to increase more rapidly
than other costs, this category is broken out as follows
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Medical $4,652,713 $4,987,708 $5,351,811 $5,779,956 $6,242,352
Dental $467,720 $501,396 $537,998 $581,038 $627,521
Total $5,120,433 $5,489,104 $5,889,809 $6,360,993 $6,869,873
Page 1 8
Supplies, Equipment and Miscellaneous
This represents the tangible goods purchased by the City Examples include office supplies; fuel;
gravel, tar and deicer for street programs; items sold at the concession stands for parks programs;
ammunition for the police department; and hoses for the fire department. The equipment budget has
been greatly reduced through these last recessionary years. Although the City cannot continue to offer
services without investment in facilities and equipment, virtually no capital expenditures are included
in this projection.
Projections and Assumptions
Supply and equipment costs are expected to increase at a modest rate as the economy moves slowly
forward.
Services and Charges
The majority of these expenditures are for professional services needed that are from outside sources.
Items include communications (telephone, postage); utilities; training; and repairs Sr maintenance.
Projections and Assumptions
Service costs are expected to increase at a modest rate as the economy moves slowly forward.
Intergovernmental Services and Interfund Transfers
Jail costs provided by other governments make up about half of this category, while the other half
consists of interfund transfers. The largest transfer is from General Fund to the Parks and Recreation
Fund for the 3.5 °° of utility taxes that are designated for that purpose. Also included in this category is
the General Fund support for Fire and Police dispatching, and transfers to debt service funds.
Projections and Assumptions
The City has negotiated a jail contract with Yakima County which has brought some stability to this
expenditure. Internal utility taxes are projected to slightly increase, so that the transfer to Parks and
Recreation is matched to that revenue source. Dispatch personnel received a negotiated labor
settlement similar to Fire personnel, so that transfer is expected to increase, as well.
Interfund Payments for Services
These payments are made between funds for services offered by other areas of the City The largest of
these interfund payments are for equipment rental by various areas of the City, along with Public
Works Administration charges for streets and parks and contributions to the Risk Management Fund.
Projections and Assumptions
These costs are held steady pending new requirements by the state in the process by which we allocate
the cost of City Services to other departments and funds.
Page 19
Deferred Maintenance and Capital Improvements
Over the years, the City has failed to keep pace with needed capital investment and deferred
maintenance of its capital assets. Currently, approximately 50% of the Equipment Rental Fleet (which
excludes Police, Fire, and Transit rolling stock) is beyond its calculated replacement age Street
maintenance programs have been severely extended since the beginning of the Great Recession, and
the current index pavement condition is at 51 %. Parks capital funding is completely depleted —there is
not enough in the Parks Capital fund to respond to any major maintenance emergency This forecast as
it stands today is extending the deferred maintenance, so that current equipment and facilities will
continue to deteriorate.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Based on projected revenue and expenses the Preliminary Five -Year Financial Forecast reflects
projected structural budget deficits between $1 5 million and $4 0 million annually between 2013 and
2016
5 -Year Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 201
General Fund (Millions) Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Tire .
Revenues $59.8 $60.6 $61.2 $62.0 $62.9
Expenditures $59.8 $62.1 $63.8 $65.3 $66.8
Net $0 0 ($1 5) ($2 5) ($3 3) ($4 0)
Projected General Government Reserves
The City has a policy to maintain 7 5% unassigned operating reserve in the combined General
Government funds to address unforeseen expenditures of an emergency nature The following table
depicts the ending reserve balance based on the summary forecast presented above, and the calculated
percentage of operating expenses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Operating Reserve % of GF 9 9% 7 1% 4 5% 0 5% (4 4 %)
Total Reserve $5 9 $4 4 $2 9 $0 3 ($2 9)
In the absence of proactive budget reduction measures, the City's unassigned General Government
operating reserves will be below the City's 7 5% policy threshold starting in 2014, and actually be
negative in 2016.
Page 1 10
CONCLUSION
Based on the results of the preliminary Five -Year Financial Forecast, we are confronted with some
challenging budget decisions over the next several years. It is clear we must develop a longer -term
strategy for dealing with both our current and future budget reality.
The projected budget shortfalls are not the same as budget deficits. The City will have budget deficits
only if we do nothing. However, by looking ahead and taking corrective measures to close these
projected shortfalls, we can avoid actual budget deficits and complete erosion of our General
Government (i.e. General, Parks and Recreation, and Streets and Traffic Engineering) operating
reserves.
A number of budget balancing actions the City Council could consider will be discussed with the City
Council at its August 21, 2012 meeting when the staff presents the full Five -Year Financial Plan, which
will reflect what measures are necessary to ensure a balanced and sustainable budget over the next five
years.
Page 1 11
015i'nCv 5t � 0 '��_
CITY OF YAKIMA
PRELIMINARY
FIVE -YEAR FINANCIAL
FORECAST
Presentation to City Council
July 31, 2012
Preliminary 5-Year Financial Forecast
The 5 -Year Financial Forecast is an integral part of
planning the City's future operation and capital financial
strategy
Goals include:
• Ensuring a financially sustainable future
• Preservation of the City's core services
• Commitment to funding infrastructure, facilities and
rolling stock
• Addressing Strategic Plan priorities
Revenue Recovery Challenges
• Unemployment rate of over 10%
• Property tax levy cap of 1%
)=. Slow taxable sales
Reductions in utility consumption
• Declining number of permits
• State budget crisis
2
2012 Projected Revenue
Fines, Forfeitures
Charges for and Misc.
Services/Interfund $3,536,100 Property Tax
Governmental $6,241,655 $15,042,840
Payments
$3,708,730
Other Taxes,
Licenses, Permits
$2,056,240
Utility Tax
$13,944,000 Sales Tax
$15,302,505
3
Revenue Sources (2012 Projected)
• Property Tax — 25.1%
• Sales Tax — 25.6%
• Utility Tax — 23.3%
• Licenses, Permits, and other taxes - 3.4%
• Governmental Payments — 6.2%
• Charges for Services /Interfund — 10.4%
• Fines, Forfeitures and miscellaneous — 5.9%
4
General Government Revenue
Growth Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue Category Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Property Tax 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Sales Tax 0.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0%
Utility Tax 17.2% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Other Taxes, Licenses, Permits (8.5 %) 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9%
Governmental Payments (7.2 %) 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Char:es for Services /Interfund (3.6 %) 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Fines, Forfeitures and Misc. 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Total 3.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4%
5
2012 Projected Expenditures
Interfund
Payment for
Intergovernmental Services
Services $2,290,100
$5,034,246
Services &
Charges
$6,763,391
Supplies,
Equipment,
Miscellaneous
$2,844,986
Personnel Benefits
$10,085,506
Salaries & Wages
$32,774,258
6
General Government Expenditures
Growth Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Expenditure Category Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Salaries & Wages 3.4% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Personnel Benefits 11.2% 7.2% 7.3% 8.0% 8.0%
Su. 'lies, Equipment, Misc. (5.9 %) 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9%
Services & Charges 5.9% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0%
Intergovernmental Services 0.6% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Interfund Payment for Services 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 4.1% 3.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4%
7
General Government Expenditures
Largest expenditure is Personnel (2012 Projected)
• Salaries and Wages — 54.8%
• Personnel Benefits — 16.9%
Health care expenses
• Increase of 8.5% per year over the last 5 years
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Medical (millions) $4.7 $5.0 $5.4 $5.8 $6.2
8
Deferred Maintenance Issues
• Equipment Rental fleet
• 50% beyond calculated replacement Age
• Street Maintenance
• Pavement conditions index at 51 on a 100 point scale
• Parks Capital
• Completely depleted
9
Projected 5 -Year Forecast
Based on projected revenue and expenses, this forecast
reflects structural budget deficits between $1.5 and $4.0
million annually between 2013 and 2016,
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
General Fund (Millions) Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenues $59.8 $60.6 $61.2 $62.0 $62.9
Expenditures $59.8 $62.1 $63.8 $65.3 $66.8
Net $0.0 ($1.5) ($2.5) ($3.3) ($4.0)
10
Operating Reserves
• City policy - maintain 7.5% operating reserve
• Used for unforeseen emergency expenditures, revenue
shortfalls and unanticipated expenses.
• Government Finance Officers Association recommends
minimal 16.6% reserve
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Operating Reserve % of GF 9.9% 7.1% 4.5% 0.5% (4.4 %)
Total Reserve $5.9 $4.4 $2.9 $0.3 ($2.9)
11
Summary
Long -term Strategy needed
• Projected shortfalls
• Corrective measures
Presentation of full 5 -Year Financial Plan
• August 21, 2012 Council Meeting
12