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Home My WebLink About04/09/2024 06. 2023 Budget Review and Forecasting 1 s^ 4 a, . g, _____) BUSINESS OF THE CITY COUNCIL YAKIMA, WASHINGTON AGENDA STATEMENT Item No. 6. For Meeting of:April 9, 2024 ITEM TITLE: 2023 Budget Review and Forecasting SUBMITTED BY: *Rosylen Oglesby, Interim Director of Finance & Budget SUMMARY EXPLANATION: A review of the adopted budget for the year 2023, with a comparison to the year-to-date figures and an examination of the factors that influenced the budget.Additionally, a review of the forecasting process through the year 2029. The aim is to gain insights into the accuracy of the budget projections and identify any areas where adjustments may be needed to improve the budgeting process going forward. ITEM BUDGETED: NA STRATEGIC PRIORITY: Public Trust and Accountability APPROVED FOR SUBMITTAL BY THE CITY MANAGER RECOMMENDATION: Review Only ATTACHMENTS: Description Upload Date Type a --.401 \ -crii il. • Ct} + A ' \ ti\)k\S\ 2O23Year End Budget Review I, ‘'1444 . ., .4.4 _,...r, o' 7: -:.0 , \_4,,,,-- as .. i ., ,:os. , <, & 2025 -2429 4an ill\ i Five-Year Forecast t % 1 t ,....ip`,'.Pa : „),..., r Gi T.., f..:.,.,, ,,,.. 0 _F City Council Study Session April 9, 2024 AGENDA 1 . FY 2023 Year-End Budget Review • Budget Assumptions • General Fund & Impacts • City-wide Funds • Greatest Drivers in Revenue Variance 2. 2025 — 2029 Five—Year Forecast • Trends & Factors • Assumptions • Forecasting Percentages: General Fund & Citywide • Fund Balance Position Pg.2•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 ft \ 2023 Year- End Budge% Budget Review 2023 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS • Revenue projections provide for a conservative growth of 2% in all revenues except Sales Tax, which shows 6% (2021 sales tax came in at 16% over the 2021 budget amount). • Salaries and benefits are projected to grow by 6% to support labor contract agreements and minimum wage increases. • Supplies, Services, and Payments have a growth factor of 4%. • Capital Outlays, projected at 5% growth, provide a systematic methodology to replace and repair City buildings, vehicles, and other equipment in a timely manner. Funds budgeted for the previous year and not spent are brought forward to the next year. • Debt Service and Transfers out to other funds are projected at 2% growth. • Custodial Outlays are part of the Custodial Fund, used to account for assets held by the City in a trustee capacity or as an agent for individuals, private organizations, other governmental units, and/or other funds. Trust funds account for resources received and disbursements made in accordance with trust agreements or applicable legislative enactments for each particular fund; therefore, no amounts are budgeted. Pg.4•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 2023 GENERAL FUND ADOPTED BUDGET Beginning Balance (unaudited) $ 16,323,848 Revenues Sales Tax $ 28,880,497 Other Tax&Assessments $ 1,207,100 Utility&Franchise Tax $ 21,542,882 Property Tax $ 9,005,763 Licenses&Permits $ 1,990,709 Intergovernmental $ 3,880,515 Charges for Services $ 3,198,625 Fines/Forf/Trans/Misc $ 4,260,898 Total Revenues $ 73,966,989 Expenditures Salaries&Wages $ 43,204,543 Personnel Benefits $ 16,449,921 Supplies, Equip&Misc $ 2,247,539 Services&Charges $ 12,921,237 Capital Outlays $ 505,289 Debt Service $ 206,233 Transfers $ 2,193,819 Total Expenditures $ 77,728,581 Est End Fund Balance $ 12,562,256 Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% $ 12,980,673 Amount of Fund Balance To Be Used: $3,761 ,592 Pg.5•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 2023 GENERAL FUND Adopted Year End Beginning Balance(unaudited) $ 16,323,848 Beginning Balance(audited) $ 9,534,450 $6,789,398 Revenues Revenues(unaudited) Reduction in Sales Tax $ 28,880,497 Sales Tax $ 25,448,018 Beginning Balance Other Tax&Assessments $ 1,207,100 Other Tax&Assessments $ 1,325,922 Utility&Franchise Tax $ 21,542,882 Utility&Franchise Tax $ 21,535,506 Property Tax $ 9,005,763 Property Tax $ 8,052,130 Licenses&Permits $ 1,990,709 Licenses&Permits $ 2,000,113 $1,191,546 Intergovernmental $ 3,880,515 Intergovernmental $ 3,179,346 Charges for Services $ 3,198,625 Charges for Services $ 3,310,876 Reduction in Fines/Forf/Trans/Misc $ 4,260,898 Fines/Forf/Trans/Misc $ 7,923,532 Revenue Total Revenues $ 73,966,989 Total Revenues $ 72,775,443 Expenditures Expenditures(unaudited) Salaries&Wages $ 43,204,543 Salaries&Wages $ 41,290,008 Personnel Benefits $ 16,449,921 Personnel Benefits $ 15,228,865 $5,927,439 Supplies,Equip&Misc $ 2,247,539 Supplies, Equip&Misc $ 1,893,929 Reduction in Services&Charges $ 12,921,237 Services&Charges $ 10,404,177 Expenditures Capital Outlays $ 505,289 Capital Outlays $ 485,986 p Debt Service $ 206,233 Debt Service $ 330,341 Transfers $ 2,193,819 Transfers $ 2,167,836 Total Expenditures $ 77,728,581 Total Expenditures $ 71,801,142 Fund Balance Est End Fund Balance $ 12,562,256 Est End Fund Balance $ 10,508,752 Growth: Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% $ 12,980,673 Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% $ 11,990,790 $974,302 Amount of Fund Balance Planned: $3,761,592 Amount of Fund Balance Used: $0 Pg.6• City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 IMPACTS TO THE GENERAL FUND Negative Impacts • Beginning Fund Balance is fluid until the prior year's actuals are audited. • General Fund sales tax • $800K under budget • Industrial insurance increase • Collective bargaining agreement settlements (YPD retro pay $3.7 M) • Overtime (staffing shortage) • Increasing cost of doing business (inmate housing, indigent defense, energy cost) Positive Impacts • Investing of unspent ARPA Funds • Investment interest was $2.6 M over budget due to unspent ARPA dollars and high-interest rates. • Utility tax came in $1 .2 M over budget. Pg.7•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 2023 CITY WIDE ADOPTED BUDGET Beginning Balance(unaudited) $ 122,983,809 Revenues Sales Tax $ 39,773,497 Other Tax&Assessments $ 6,879,419 Utility&Franchise Tax $ 23,118,210 Property Tax $ 22,919,530 Licenses&Permits $ 3,471,594 Intergovernmental $ 68,076,830 Charges for Services $ 59,520,865 Fines/Fort/Trans/Misc $ 59,708,720 Total Revenues $283,468,665 Expenditures Salaries&Wages $ 72,807,727 Personnel Benefits $ 43,766,672 Supplies, Equip&Misc $ 10,713,250 Services&Charges $ 76,439,598 Intergovernmental Services Capital Outlays $ 75,841,442 Debt Service $ 9,128,254 Transfers $ 18,429,087 Total Expenditures $307,126,030 Est End Fund Balance $ 99,326,44.4 Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% $ 51,290,047 Amount of Fund Balance To Be Used: $23,657,365 Includes the General Fund Pg.8* City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 2023 CITYWIDE Adopted Year End $15,423,230 Increase in Beginning Balance(unaudited) $122,983,809 Beginning Balance(audited) $138,407,039 Revenues Revenues(unaudited) Beginning Sales Tax $ 39,773,497 Sales Tax $ 40,159,100 Balance Other Tax&Assessments $ 6,879,419 Other Tax&Assessments $ 6,566,676 Utility&Franchise Tax $ 23,118,210 Utility&Franchise Tax $ 23,101,959 Property Tax $ 22,919,530 Property Tax $ 22,637,464 Licenses&Permits $ 3,471,594 Licenses&Permits $ 3,396,026 Intergovernmental $ 68,076,830 Intergovernmental $ 35,712,459 $23,076,954 Charges for Services $ 59,520,865 Charges for Services $ 60,820,702 Reduction in Fines/Forf/Trans/Misc $ 59,708,720 Fines/Forf/Trans/Misc $ 67,997,324 Total Revenues $283,468,665 Total Revenues $260,391,710 Revenue Expenditures Expenditures(unaudited) Salaries&Wages $ 72,807,727 Salaries&Wages $ 68,501,170 Personnel Benefits $ 43,766,672 Personnel Benefits $ 41,918,229 $55 696 791 Supplies, Equip&Misc $ 10,713,250 Supplies,Equip&Misc $ 9,198,690 Services&Charges $ 76,439,598 Services&Charges $ 63,779,389 Reduction in Intergovernmental Services Intergovernmental Services $ 5,258,805 Capital Outlays $ 75,841,442 Capital Outlays $ 35,773,227 Expenditures Debt Service $ 9,128,254 Debt Service $ 9,194,219 Transfers $ 18,429,087 Transfers $ 17,805,510 Total Expenditures $307,126,030 Total Expenditures $251,429,240 Fund Balance Est End Fund Balance $ 99,326,444 Est End Fund Balance $147,369,509 Growth: $8,962,470 Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% $ 51,290,047 Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% $ 41,988,683 Amount of Fund Balance Planned: $23,657,365 Amount of Fund Balance Used: $0 Pg.9• City Council Study Session• 2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 6 IMPACTS TO CITYWIDE FUNDS Negative Impacts • Beginning Fund Balance is fluid until the prior year's actuals are audited: • General Fund Only - $7.8 M less • Certain Revenues under budget. The major ones are noted below: • General Fund Sales tax - $800K • Citywide Funds Intergovernmental - $32.4 M • Increase Industrial Insurance • Increase in personnel costs • Collective bargaining agreement settlements (YPD retro pay $3.7 M) • Overtime (staffing shortage) • Increasing cost of doing business Positive Impacts • Beginning Fund Balance is fluid until the prior year's actuals are audited: • Citywide Funds — grew$8.96 M • General Fund - $974,302 • All other Funds - $7.99 M • Overall, Revenues perform well. The major ones are noted below: • Fines/Forf/Trans/Misc. - $21.7 M • Charges for Service - $1.5 M Pg.10■City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 GREATEST DRIVERS IN REVENUE VARIANCE (Across All Funds) Preliminary 2023 revenues that came in under budget Preliminary 2023 Revenues over Budget Budget YTD Difference Budget YTD Difference GENERAL FUND SALES TAX $ 24,247,000 $ 23,446,284 $ (800,716) INVESTMENT INTEREST $ 1,496,100 S 4,113,647 $ 2,617,547 UTILITY TAX-POWER $ 5,213,000 S 6,292,358 $ 1,079,358 REET1 REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX $ 1,600,000 $ 1,226,249 $ (373,751) WASTEWATER $ 21,821,165 S 22,839,528 $ 1,018,363 REET2-REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX 2 $ 1,600,000 $ 1,226,249 $ (373,751) REFUSE $ 7,566,069 S 8,037,328 $ 471,259 YAKIMA AIR TERMINAL $ 1,934,333 $ 1,588,040 $ (346,293) OTHER REVENUE $ 44.839.238 $ 47.228.249 $ 2,389,010 SEWER UTILITY TAX $ 5,180,300 $ 4,855,904 $ (324,396) Sum $ 80,935,572 S 88,511,109 $ 7,575,537 CRIMINAL JUSTICE-HIGH CRIME $ 379,000 $ 78,443 $ (300,557) TOURIST PROMOTION AREA(TPA) $ 1,350,000 $ 1,080,298 $ (269,702) PROPERTY TAX $ 22,863,710 $ 22,637,464 $ (226,246) JTILJTY TAX-CHARTER CABLE $ 866,000 $ 710,057 $ (155,943) TRANSPORTATION BENEFIT DISTRICT $ 1,786,000 $ 1,677,033 $ (108,967) WATER UTILITY TAX $ 2,412,400 $ 2,304,239 $ (108,161) OTHER REVENUE $ 8,804,370 $ 8,205,332 $ (599,038) ikli it , Sum$ 73,023,113 $ 69,035,592 $(3,987,521) t 1 ' { $ Pg.11 •City Council Study Session• 2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 RECAP • General Fund Only: • Beginning Fund Balance estimate with less than predicted ($16.3 M vs. $9.5 M) • Revenues underperformed -4 $1 .2 M • Reduction in expenditures - .$5.9 M • No Fund Balance Used • Fund Balance grew: °�= $974,302; estimated balance: $10.5 M • Citywide Funds: • Beginning Fund Balance estimate increased by $15.4 M ($122.98 vs. $138.41 ) • Revenues underperformed -4$23. 1 M • Reduction in expenditures - 4 $55.7 M • No Fund Balance Used • Fund Balance grew - .i $8.9 M; estimated balance: $147.3 M Pg.12.City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 Gro ctirki, )� ---..r- --"I4441141140 ::::•; „.:. •-• .. , • • fe Forecasting 2025 _ 2029 .._ ... ..: ., . , ... ... .,.. :, ...., ...:. . .., ..:. ,r,. 4--. • • Five -year _ ... 1 ... • .. .„ , , • , A 2oo90,0 . Forecast . . . . . ... . ... _... FINANCIAL FORECAST • Update of the financial forecast to reflect economic projections of the City's future financial conditions. • Objective of the financial forecast is to provide a frame of reference for evaluating the City's financial condition as a basis for decision-making. • Uses the present level of services and capital needs as the baseline. • Inflation and historical analysis are used to predict expenditure patterns, while revenues are projected based on trends or specific known events. • Information regarding economic indicators and the performance of the economy over the forecast period was taken from several sources, such as Washington State Office of Financial Management, Municipal Research and Services Center of Washington (MRSC), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington State Department of Revenue, etc. Pg.15•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 (14.9 INFLUENCING FACTORS Government budget forecasting requires navigating a complex web of political, economic, social, and legal factors, including but not limited to: • Inflation • Legislation ▪ Election Cycles • Interest Rates • Consumer Confidence • Rising Prices • Economic Cycles • Trend Analysis • Real Estate Market • Upcoming Projects • Future Debt Needs Pg.16 •City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 Ci) Trends ImpactingCities • Increasing costs to replace aging infrastructure. • Increasing cost of maintenance of city facilities. • Increasing workforce needs/costs. • Increasing healthcare changes/costs. • Increasing digital transformation. • Demands housing supply and affordability. • Managing a more difficult regulatory environment. • Changing resident expectations for city services. • Decreasing financial support from the state/federal government. • Residual impact of the pandemic. Pg.17•City Council Study Session • 2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS • 10-year trend analysis: revenues & expenditures • ARPA funds — loss of interest • Fee schedule updated at regular intervals • 1 % annual increase in property tax What this assumption does not include: • Interest rate fluctuation • Economic development. • Cost of fiscal changes, i.e. , new positions/new or enhanced programs • Known revenues that ebb and flow, such as grants Pg.18•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 GENERAL FUND BY TYPE • 001 General Fund • 003 General Fund — 3/10th Criminal Justice Sales Tax (Restricted) • Municipal Court • Legal • Police • Code Enforcement — Animal Control • Public Safety Communications • 612 General Fund - Fire Relief & Pension (Restricted) Pg.19•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 GENERAL FUND FORECAST PERCENTAGES (COMPARISONS) 2017 - 2027 2025 - 2029 Budgeted Budgeted Revenue Changes (% Increase) Increases Revenue Changes (% Increase) Increases Sales Tax 6.0% Sales Tax 4.5% Utility & Franchise Taxes 2.0% Utility & Franchise Taxes 3.5% Property Tax 2.0% Property Tax 2.0% Charges for Services 2.0% Charges for Services 2.0% Intergovernmental Revenues 2.0% Intergovernmental Revenues .2% Other Taxes &Assessments 2.0% Other Taxes &Assessments 4.0% Licenses & Permits 2.0% Licenses & Permits 3.0% Fines & Forf, Transfers, Misc 2.0% Fines & Forf, Transfers, Misc 2.0% Expenditure Changes (+/-%) Expenditure Changes (+/ %) Salaries & Wages 6.0% Salaries & Wages 4.5% Personnel Benefits 6.0% Personnel Benefits 6.4% Supplies - Cons & Resale 4.0% Supplies - Cons & Resale 3.0% Services & Payments 4.0% Services & Payments 5.0% Capital Outlays 5.0% Capital Outlays 5.0% Debt Service 2.0% Debt Service .0% Transfers 2.0% Transfers 2.0% Pg.20 a City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 GENERAL FUND REVENUE PROJECTION (Fund 001 Only - With Transfers) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Revenues Sales Tax 26,861,000 28,069,745 29,332,884 30,652,863 32,032,242 33,473,693 Utility & Franchise Taxes 21,875,730 22,641,381 23,433,829 24,254,013 25,102,903 25,981,505 Property Tax 8,057,406 8,218,554 8,382,925 8,550,584 8,721,596 8,896,028 Charges for Services 3,130,502 3,193,112 3,256,974 3,322,114 3,388,556 3,456,327 Intergovernmental Revenues 3,370,787 3,377,529 3,384,284 3,391,052 3,397,834 3,404,630 Other Taxes &Assessments 1,260,389 1,310,805 1,363,237 1,417,766 1,474,477 1,533,456 Licenses & Permits 1,921,200 1,978,836 2,038,201 2,099,347 2,162,328 2,227,197 Fines & Foil, Transfers, Misc 3,916,178 3,994,502 4,074,392 4,155,879 4,238,997 4,323,777 Total Revenues 70,393,192 72,784,463 75,266,725 77,843,619 80,518,933 83,296,613 Pg.21 • City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE PROJECTION (Fund 001 Only - With Transfers) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Expenditures Salaries & Wages 42,587,261 44,503,688 46,506,353 48,599,139 50,786,101 53,071,475 Personnel Benefits 15,803,091 16,814,488 17,890,616 19,035,615 20,253,894 21,550,144 Supplies - Cons & Resale 1,539,678 1,585,868 1,633,444 1,682,448 1,732,921 1,784,909 Services & Payments 8,832,562 9,274,190 9,737,899 10,224,794 10,736,034 11,272,835 Intergovernmental Services - - - _ _ Capital Outlays 100,000 105,000 110,250 115,763 121,551 127,628 Debt Service 166,852 166,852 166,852 166,852 166,852 166,852 Transfers 2,224,257 2,268,742 2,314,117 2,360,399 2,407,607 2,455,760 Total Expenditures 71,253,700 74,718,828 78,359,532 82,185,010 86,204,960 90,429,603 Pg.22 •City Council Study Session •2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE vs REVENUES (Fund 001 Only - With Transfers) $95,000,000 $90,000,000 $85,000,000 $80,000,000 $75,000,000 $70,000,000 �f" ~ $65,000,000 $60,000,000 $55,000,000 $50,000,000 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected �GP Total Exp --GF'total Rev el‘ Pg.23•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 t` GENERAL FUND BUDGET PROJECTION (Fund 001 Only - With Transfers) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Revenues Sales Tax 26,861,000 28,069,745 29,332,884 30,652,863 32,032,242 33,473,693 Utility&Franchise Taxes 21,875,730 22,641,381 23,433,829 24,254,013 25,102,903 25,981,505 Property Tax 8,057,406 8,218,554 8,382,925 8,550,584 8,721,596 8,896,028 Charges for Services 3,130,502 3,193,112 3,256,974 3,322,114 3,388,556 3,456,327 Intergovernmental Revenues 3,370,787 3,377,529 3,384,284 3,391,052 3,397,834 3,404,630 Other Taxes&Assessments 1,260,389 1,310,805 1,363,237 1,417,766 1,474,477 1,533,456 Licenses&Permits 1,921,200 1,978,836 2,038,201 2,099,347 2,162,328 2,227,197 Fines&Forf,Transfers,Misc 3,916,178 3,994,502 4,074,392 4,155,879 4,238,997 4,323,777 Total Revenues 70,393,192 72,784,463 75,266,725 77,843,619 80,518,933 83,296,613 Expenditures Salaries&Wages 42,587,261 44,503,688 46,506,353 48,599,139 50,786,101 53,071,475 Personnel Benefits 15,803,091 16,814,488 17,890,616 19,035,615 20,253,894 21,550,144 Supplies-Cons&Resale 1,539,678 1,585,868 1,633,444 1,682,448 1,732,921 1,784,909 Services&Payments 8,832,562 9,274,190 9,737,899 10,224,794 10,736,034 11,272,835 Intergovernmental Services - - - - - Capital Outlays 100,000 105,000 110,250 115,763 121,551 127,628 Debt Service 166,852 166,852 166,852 166,852 166,852 166,852 Transfers 2,224,257 2,268.742 2.314,117 2,360,399 2,407,607 2.455.760 Total Expenditures 71,253,700 74,718,828 78,359,532 82,185,010 86,204,960 90,429,603 Est End Fund Balance 9.648.244 7.713.879 _ 4,621,072 279,680 (5,406,347) (12.539,337) Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% 11,899,368 12,478.044 13,086,042 13.724.897 14,396,228 15,101,744 Net Fund Balance (2,251,124) (4,764,166) (8,464,970) (13,445,217) (19,802,576) (27,641,081) Pg.24• City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 g i GENERAL FUND ENDING FUND BALANCE vs POLICY RESERVE (Fund 001 Only - With Transfers) $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $- $(5,000,000) $(10,000,000) $(15,000,000) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected tGF End Balance .Policy Rsv Anit 16 7'<.: Pg.25•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 Vi• CITYWIDE FORECAST PERCENTAGES (COMPARISONS) 2017 - 2027 Budgeted 2025 - 2029 Revenue Changes (% Increase) Increases Budgeted Sales Tax 6.0% Revenue Changes (% Increase) Increases Utility & Franchise Taxes 2.0% Sales Tax 4.5% Property Tax 2.0% Utility & Franchise Taxes 3.5% Charges for Services 2.0% Property Tax 2.0% Intergovernmental Revenues 2.0% Charges for Services 2.5% Other Taxes &Assessments 2.0% Intergovernmental Revenues .2% Licenses & Permits 2.0% Other Taxes &Assessments 4.0% Fines & Forf, Transfers, Misc 2.0% Licenses & Permits 3.0% Expenditure Changes (+/-%) Fines & Forf, Transfers, Misc 2.0% Salaries & Wages 6.0% Expenditure Changes (+/-%) Personnel Benefits 6.0% Salaries & Wages 4.5% Supplies - Cons & Resale 4.0% Personnel Benefits 6.4% Services & Payments 4.0% Supplies - Cons & Resale 3.0% Capital Outlays 5.0% Services & Payments 5.0% Debt Service 2.0% Capital Outlays 5.0% Transfers 2.0% Debt Service 2.0% Transfers 2.0% Includes the General Fund Pg.26•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 CITYWIDE REVENUE PROJECTION 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate _ Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Revenues Sales Tax 41,181,000 43,034,145 44,970,682 46,994,362 49,109,108 51,319,018 Utility & Franchise Taxes 23,463,365 24,284,583 25,134,543 26,014,252 26,924,751 27,867,117 Property Tax 23,942,139 24,420,982 24,909,402 25,407,590 25,915,741 26,434,056 Charges for Services 61,633,234 63,174,065 64,753,417 66,372,252 68,031,558 69,732,347 Intergovernmental Revenues 45,277,996 45,368,552 45,459,289 45,550,207 45,641,308 45,732,590 Other Taxes &Assessments 7,096,712 7,380,580 7,675,804 7,982,836 8,302,149 8,634,235 Licenses & Permits 3,402,085 3,504,148 3,609,272 3,717,550 3,829,077 3,943,949 Fines & Forf, Transfers, Misc 60,606,709 61,818,843 63,055,220 64,316,324 _ 65,602,651 66,914,704 Total Revenues 266,603,240 272,985,897 279,567,627 286,355,373 293,356,344 300,578,017 Includes the General Fund Pg.27•City Council Study Session •2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,202401. CITYWIDE EXPENDITURE PROJECTION 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Expenditures Salaries & Wages 73,516,559 76,824,805 80,281,921 83,894,607 87,669,865 91,615,008 Personnel Benefits 45,108,938 47,995,910 51,067,648 54,335,978 57,813,480 61,513,543 Supplies - Cons & Resale 10,258,366 10,566,117 10,883,100 11,209,593 11,545,881 11,892,257 Services & Payments 72,561,367 76,189,436 79,998,907 83,998,853 88,198,795 92,608,735 Intergovernmental Services - - - - - - Capital Outlays 44,920,751 47,166,789 49,525,128 52,001,384 54,601,454 57,331,526 Debt Service 7,597,435 7,749,383 7,904,371 8,062,459 8,223,708 8,388,182 Transfers 19.018,577 19,398,949 19,786,928 20,182,666 20.586,320 20,998,046 Total Expenditures 272,981,993 285,891,388 299,448,003 313,685,540 328,639,502 344,347,298 Includes the General Fund Pg.28•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 . CITYWIDE EXPENDITURES vs REVENUES $400,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected t CO/'total lixp -CW Total Nev Includes the General Fund Pg.29•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 CITYWIDE FUNDS ENDING FUND BALANCE VS POLICY RESERVE $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $- 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected tCW Lind Balance tPolicy Rsv Amt-25'7 Includes the General Fund Pg.30•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 =pj= CITYWIDE BUDGET PROJECTION 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 YE Estimate Projected Projected _ Projected Projected Projected Revenues Sales Tax 41,181,000 43,034,145 44,970,682 46,994,362 49,109,108 51,319,018 Utility&Franchise Taxes 23,463,365 24,284,583 25,134,543 26,014,252 26,924,751 27,867,117 Property Tax 23,942,139 24,420,982 24,909,402 25,407,590 25,915,741 26,434,056 Charges for Services 61,633,234 63,174,065 64,753,417 66,372,252 68,031,558 69,732,347 Intergovernmental Revenues 45,277,996 45,368,552 45,459,289 45,550,207 45,641,308 45,732,590 Other Taxes&Assessments 7,096,712 7,380,580 7,675,804 7,982,836 8,302,149 8,634,235 Licenses&Permits 3,402,085 3,504,148 3,609,272 3,717,550 3,829,077 3,943,949 Fines&Forf,Transfers, Misc 60,606,709 61,818,843 63,055,220 64.316.324 65.602,651 66,914,704 Total Revenues 266,603,240 272,985,897 279,567,627 286,355,373 293,356,344 300,578,017 Expenditures Salaries&Wages 73,516,559 76,824,805 80,281,921 83,894,607 87,669,865 91,615,008 Personnel Benefits 45,108,938 47,995,910 51,067,648 54,335,978 57,813,480 61,513,543 Supplies-Cons&Resale 10,258,366 10,566,117 10,883,100 11,209,593 11,545,881 11,892,257 Services&Payments 72,561,367 76,189,436 79,998,907 83,998,853 88,198,795 92,608,735 Intergovernmental Services - - - -Capital Outlays 44,920,751 47,166,789 49,525,128 52,001,384 54,601,454 57,331,526 Debt Service 7,597,435 7,749,383 7,904,371 8,062,459 8,223,708 8,388,182 Transfers 19,018,577 19,398,949 19.786.928 20,182,666 20,586,320 20.998,046 Total Expenditures 272,981,993 285,891,388 299,448,003 313,685,540 328,639,502 344,347,298 Est End Fund Balance 140,990,755 128,085,265 108,204,888 80,874,722 45,591.563 1,822,282 Policy Rsv Amt-16.7% 45.587,993 47,743,862 _ _ 50,007,817 52,385,485 54,882,797 57,505,999 Net Fund Balance 95,402,762 80,341,403 58,197,072 _ 28,489,236 i9 291,234) (55,683,717) Includes the General Fund Pg.31 o City Council Study Session 8 2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast r April 9,2024 FORECAST SUMMARY • Over the forecast period, the City's revenue and expenditures show a negative operating position for the general fund (001 ) in the years 2028 and 2029. • The City will need to consider how to either boost revenues or reduce costs. • The budget process for coming years will require priority-setting and budget control decisions to reduce potential deficits. Pg.32•City Council Study Session•2023 Year-End Budget Review and 2025—2029 Five-Year Forecast•April 9,2024 Y, ED'