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HomeMy WebLinkAbout04/01/2025 Public CommentREQUEST FOR APPEARANCE BEFORE CITY COUNCIL SOLICITUD PARA COMPARECER ANTE EL CONCEJO MUNICIPAL REQUIRED (OBLIGA TORIO) NAME (Nombre): 1� AGENDA ITEM NUMBER(S) OR CITY TOPIC YOU WIS TO SPEAK TO (i1i' ero(s) el tema de la agenda o asunto de la ciudad que desea hablar sobre): LJ(GA ayw� CITY OF YAKIMA RESIDENT (Residente de la Ciudad de Yakima): YAKIMA COUNTY RESIDENT (Residente del condado de Yakima): ❑ OTHER RESIDENT (Otro Residente): ❑ ABOVE INFORMATION MUST BE FILLED OUT IN ORDER TO SPEAK DURING PUBLIC COM'MENT LA INFORMACION ANTERIOR DEBE CQMPLETARSE PARA HABLAR DURANTE EL COMENTARIO PUBLIC© OPTIONAL (OPC/ONAL) HOW WOULD YOU PREFER THE CITY CONTACT YOU IF NEEDED (Como prefiere que la ciudad se ponga en contacto con usted si es necesario?): - PHONE (NOmero de telefono) _3 - ADDRESS (Domicilio) - E-MAIL ADDRESS (Direccion de correo electronico) Please complete this form prior to the start of Public Comment and submit it to the City Clerk (who sits on the left end of the Council table). Por favor complete este formulario antes del inicio de los Comentarios PGblicos y entreguelo a la Secretaria Municipal (que se sienta en el extremo izquierdo de la mesa del Concejo) When addressing the City Council, state your name and whether you live inside or outside City of Yakima limits. Al dirigirse al Concejal, diga su nombre e indique si vive dentro o fuera de los limites de la Ciudad de Yakima. Additional guidelines for addressing the City Council are on the reverse side of this form. Directrices adicionales para dirigirse al Concejal se encuentran al reverso de este formulario. Please note that the Council meeting is being televised on Y-PAC, cable channel 194. Tenga en cuenta que la reunion del Concejo Municipal esta siendo televisada por Y-PAC, canal de cable 194. Yakima City Council meeting April 1,2025 Distributed at Meeting: Oq -01 -021)P5 Remit 2/ RE; Budget cuts to Washington Fruit Community center, Harmon Senior Center, Lions Pool and Franklin Pool. Please note that the Senior trips that are through the Harmon Center are not included in these figures but should be noted that they are operated through the Harmon Center and do not cost the city but actually made money in 2024. 2024 budget amounts, revenue, net cost per the Yakima Parks and Recreation Division report dated October 29, 2024. The total Parks and Rec budget of 6,312,617 includes ALL park facilities, properties, admin and maintenance. FACILITY BUDGET REVENUE NET COST WA Fruit center 399,591 72,000 319,951 Lions Pool 607,000 127,824 479,176 Franklin Pool 236,893 69,017 167,876 Harmon Senior Center 454,768 72,560 382,208 TOTALS 1,698,252 267,601 1,348,851 PARKS AND REC BUDGET 6,312,617 PERCENTAGE FOR THE 4 FACILITIES 26% TOTAL VISITS FOR ALL FACILITIES 203,172 VISIT FOR THE 4 FACILITIES 167,816 (82.58%) NET COST PER VISIT 8.03 2023 POPULATION CITY OF YAKIMA 96,750 2023 under 18 years old 27.8% 2023 over 65 years old 16.3% Prepared by Patty Maggard Prediletto REQUEST FOR APPEARANCE BEFORE CITY COUNCIL SOLICITUD PARA COMPARECER ANTE EL CONCEJO MUNICIPAL REQUIRED (OBLIGATQRIO) NAME (Nombre): r-i ,t�1 D VV AGENDA ITEM NUMBER(S) OR CITY TOPIC YOU WISH TO SPEAK TO (t as r eroO del tema4e la agenda o asunto de la ciudad que desea hablarsobre): 0 d0'1` CITY OF YAKIMA RESIDENT (Residente de la Ciudad de Yakima): lid YAKIMA COUNTY RESIDENT (Residente del condado de Yakima): OTHER RESIDENT (Otro Residente): ❑ ABOVE INFORMATION MUST BE FILLED OUT IN ORDER TO SPEAK DURING PUBLIC COMMENT LA INFORMACION ANTERIOR DEBE COMPLETARSE. PARA HABLAR DURANTE ELCOMENTARIO POBUCO OPTIONAL (OPCIONAL) HOW WOULD YOU PREFER THE CITY CONTACT YOU IF NEEDED (Como prefiere que la ciudad se ponga en contacto con usted si es necesario?): - PHONE (Numero de telefono) ( ) - ADDRESS (Domicilio) - E-MAIL ADDRESS (Direccion de correo electronico) Please complete this form prior to the start of Public Comment and submit it to the City Clerk (who sits on the left end of the Council table). Por favor complete este formulario antes del inicio de los Comentarios Publicos y entreguelo a la Secretaria Municipal (que se sienta en el extremo izquierdo de la mesa del Concejo) When addressing the City Council, state your name and whether you live inside or outside City of Yakima limits. Al dirigirse al Concejal, diga su nombre e indique si vive dentro o fuera de los limites de la Ciudad de Yakima. Additional guidelines for addressing the City Council are on the reverse side of this form. Directrices adicionales para dirigirse al Concejal se encuentran al reverso de este formulario. Please note that the Council meeting is being televised on Y-PAC, cable channel 194. Tenga en cuenta que la reunion del Concejo Municipal esta siendo televisada por Y-PAC, canal de cable 194. REQUEST FOR APPEARANCE BEFORE CITY COUNCIL SOLICITUD PARA COMPARECER ANTE EL CONCEJO MUNICIPAL REQUIRED (OBLIGATORIO) NAME (Nombre): 40 AGENDA ITEM NUMBER(S) OR CITY TOPICrYOU IJIS I AK T9 (Namero(s) del tema de la agenda o asunto de la ciudad que desea hablar sobre): CITY OF YAKIMA RESIDENT (Residente de la Ciudad de Yakim YAKIMA COUNTY RESIDENT (Residente del condado de Yakima): ❑ OTHER RESIDENT (Otro Residente): El ABOVE INFORMATION MUST BE FILLED OUT IN ORDER TO SPEAK DURING PUBLIC COMMENT LA !NFORMACION ANTERIOR DEBEcOMPLETARSE PARA HABLAR DURANTE EL COMENTARIO PUBUCO OPTIONAL (QPCIONAL) HOW WOULD YOU PREFER THE CITY CONTACT YOU IF NEEDED (Como prefiere que la ciudad se ponga en contacto con usted si es necesario?): - PHONE (Numero de telefono) ,(? 6 2- - ADDRESS (Domicllio) - E-MAIL ADDRESS (Direccion de correo electronico) Please complete this form prior to the start of Public Comment and submit it to the City Clerk (who sits on the left end of the Council table). Por favor complete este formulario antes del inicio de los Comentarios Publicos y entreguelo a la Secretaria Municipal (que se sienta en el extremo izquierdo de la mesa del Concejo) When addressing the City Council, state your name and whether you live inside or outside City of Yakima limits. Al dirigirse al Concejal, diga su nombre e indique si vive dentro o fuera de los limites de la Ciudad de Yakima. Additional guidelines for addressing the City Council are on the reverse side of this form. Directrices adicionales para dirigirse al Concejal se encuentran al reverso de este formulario. Please note that the Council meeting is being televised on Y-PAC, cable channel 194. Tenga en cuenta que la reunion del Concejo Municipal esta siendo televisada por Y-PAC, canal de cable 194. Distributed at Meeting:., itemk_t Planning Commission 3/26/25 City Council 4/1/25 Last time we talked about "Following The Money" after I described the Real Estate Law class when the Attorney for the WRA told us that if we Realtors REALLY understood the new housing laws, we could make a LOT of money! So today we'll start where I started after that class...Following the Money. The REAL QUESTION is, in spite of all the 'Press', do we actually have a 'Housing Crisis'? Let's connect some dots...and bear with me as this is going to be a bit mind -bending and may seem like a series of rabbit-trails...but it isn't. These 'dots' are the 'roots' of all the 'Housing Crisis' concerns. So...the first thing I looked at was the claim that we had a severe, unprecedented housing shortage. We know there are many factors involved in this much discussed supply shortage: • Covid slowed down housing starts and stopped people from moving as much, so inventory is lower than the 'norm'. • Then comes housing affordability: material costs are rising, along with insurance costs and mortgage rates. • All of these are true but are usually more short-term contributors to a housing shortage. • Then of course, there are Fair Housing arguments. I don't debate, at all, that some segments of our society have been historically unfairly treated when it comes to their choice of housing and neighborhoods...and that needs to be rectified. But let's look at what I will call: The Overpopulation The one Long -Term Root Cause that is most often used to explain these housing shortages is that of overpopulation. I would have to say that most people consider 'world overpopulation' an undisputed 'FACT'. We have been saturated with press concerning Overpopulation and the assertion that our planet is facing an existential crisis...that there are simply too many people. But is that the th? Because of something I'd seen last year, I dived into this question first because it somehow felt tied to claims of a 'Housing Crisis'. And I was shocked at what I found. It may not surprise you like it did me, but I'm hoping it will make us all think seriously about the information we are being 'fed' all the time! I recalled an interactive map I'd seen in 2024. It's a map of all the countries of the world and their birth rates. I've passed that out to you at the top of today's packet...and you may look at it now if you wish - or look it up later at the website. (You can find the Interactive World Population Map on the Life Issues Institute website h s://lifeissues.org/world-population-sta s-by-coun apl) It is a well -researched study of what is REALLY happening with world populations. And guess what? The more civilized Nations of the world are actually shrinking...most substantially! Around the world nearly all developed nations are suffering from an alarming trend. People are not having enough children. A country needs a replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman in order to maintain population equilibrium...or the country actually begins to 'die'. If births don't exceed the death rate in a country it is increasingly in danger of losing not only it's workforce and hence its tax base and vital services, but its general overall 'infrastructure' as a country. On your world map, the green countries/continents are the ones that maintain a healthy birth rate. The red countries, like Communist China, because of their one child policies, are actually in serious, maybe unrecoverable trouble, that may cause them to decline to the point of collapse. You'll notice that the USA is ORANGE. This means we aren't replacing our dying citizens with new ones at a fast enough rate to keep us 'Population Healthy'. The orange countries are in danger of becoming red if something doesn't happen to change the course of their population decrease. And these stats include North American REPORTED immigration both legal and illegal. If it wasn't for these immigrants, the U.S. would be RED. Now as I reviewed this, I thought that since this map was from a faith -based organization, it might be a bit biased...So I did my own research. I was absolutely shocked at what I found: article after article, research project after project, that all say our planet is NOT facing a crisis of overpopulation, but the opposite. Do your own research: Contrary to all the assertions, we in the western world are facing a crisis of under -population as birthrates decline rapidly and Baby Boomers die in record numbers. That brings me to: ot #2: What happens to National and for our purposes in this discussion, State Budgets, when we are Orange? I've included an enlightening article from Pew Research in 2022 on the birthrate decline and what it means for State Budgets. I quote: "Conclusion The historic decline in fertility will touch nearly every area of state budgets in the coming years...The implications for individual states vary: Those with shrinking work forces that rely more than other states on taxes sensitive to population declines —such as income and sales taxes (Washington) —are especially vulnerable to budget pressures. Other demographic shifts such as migration will also affect many sources of revenue and spending. ...If low fertility persists, however, states will need to look more for other ways to grow their tax bases or they could face challenges over the long term," This article is a slightly longer read, and some facts about immigration are REALLY out of date, but be sure to a least look •t the chrts included. Overall this tie between decreasing populations and State Budgets. is extremeht important to understanding what comes next— Dtst #3: Etat has out: State overn eat chosen to do about this declitte o ',dation and holt' (foes that a art hosisiti Sti ? + tus xsy t...ounny, iviap - Lire issues institute worm ropuiatzon Population Status 3'22/2025 9.44 PA Use Interactive Map at: https://lifeissues.org/world-population-status-by-country-map/ At Life Issues Institute we have diligently researched and compiled relevant information from around the world to paint a very clear picture of how dire the situation my soon become. Countries that are at or above replacement rate, and seeing a positive overall population growth rate are Countries untrie thcit ire at or above replacement rate but experience a negative bye' pti #t lion growth rate are Y `�� , Countries that are below replacement ent rate and experiencing a negativ+ overali population growth rate are ' Clicking on a country will pull up their fertility gate, grt rth rate, and what steps, if any, they are taking to increase their population. We in the western world will soon face a crisis of underpoptIrton. Around the world nearly all developed nations are suffering from an alarming trend. People are not having enough children. For a society to maintain its existing population, they must maintain a fertility rate of 2.1%. This magic number is known as the `Replacement Rate'. The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewt usts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... e lea ge s States with low birth rates and shrinking populations face fiscal risks ISSUE BRIEF December 5, 2022 Read time: 16 min Projects: State Fiscal Health Overview When the economy takes a downward turn, couples often temporarily put off having children.1 But in the years following the Great Recession, births never rebounded. Instead, fertility has largely continued to follow a downward trajectory across the country, falling to a record low in 2020.2 State budgets have started to feel the effects of this long-term decline. The future course of fertility represents a key source of fiscal uncertainty for states as smaller working -age populations may eventually threaten tax bases. Fertility is one of several demographic pressures states are experiencing: In addition to recent declines in international migration and life expectancy, the broader aging of the population and the large-scale exit of Baby Boomers from the workforce will pose challenges to states over the long term.3 Total U.S. population growth hit a record low last year as the pandemic exacerbated some of these issues.4 This brief examines the historic decline in fertility and its wide-ranging potential effects on state budgets. Fewer births could yield cost savings: Many school districts are experiencing drops in enrollment and a sharp reduction in teenage pregnancies has already helped limit growth in health expenditures.5 In the coming decades, however, governments may face resource challenges, with a smaller pool of workers likely suppressing income, sales, and other tax revenue sources. The Pew Charitable Trusts analyzed the most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data and reviewed a cross-section of state budget reports detailing projected population trends and their fiscal effects. Among the key findings: • Forty-three states recorded their lowest general fertility rate, which represents annual births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, in at least three decades in 2020. 1 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/.n. Every state except for North Dakota experienced losses when the most recently published 2020 rates are compared to averages over the decade ending in 2010. The severity of the declines over the past decade varies greatly, with Western states generally experiencing the most severe fertility rate drops. Arizona's and Utah's declines were more than double that of the 50-state average. States are already feeling some effects of low fertility, such as lower school enrollment, but many of the most significant potential hits to tax revenues won't occur for decades. Some states are more vulnerable to potential budget pressures than others because of their tax structures, economies, and ability to attract working -age residents via migration. l ity's steady decline Changing societal norms and other factors have reshaped recent generations of American families. Following the baby boom from 1946 to 1964, birth rates plummeted through the early 1970s, then fluctuated little in succeeding decades. The Great Recession marked another turning point; fertility had slowly climbed in the years leading up to 2008 before tumbling.6 It has mostly continued to fall since then, with the latest available data covering 2020—and reflecting children conceived prior to the pandemic —showing 43 states recorded their lowest general fertility rate in at least three decades. General Fertility Rates Decline Across States The United States recorded a rate of 56 births per 1,000 women in 2020 100 90 80 70 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: The general fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women 15 to 44 years old. Source: Pew compilation of annual data from CDC National Center for Health Statistics reports 2020 2 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... © 2022 The Pew Charitable Trusts I View ge To study how rates have changed in recent years, Pew compared each state's 2020 general fertility rate (calculated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to that state's average rate between 2001 to 2010. By using an average as the baseline, the results are less influenced by temporary fluctuations. In 2020, the national general fertility rate was down 15.9% from its average over the decade ending in 2010, with 10 states experiencing reductions exceeding 20%. Mostly Western states led the way in incurring the most dramatic long-term fertility rate declines, despite often experiencing strong population gains overall, due largely to migration. Demographics play an important role in driving states' fertility declines. Many of the states with the sharpest fertility rate reductions have high concentrations of Hispanics, a group that experienced a particularly noticeable drop-off in fertility.8 Fertility among Hispanics has historically far exceeded that of non -Hispanics, which is primarily attributable to factors related to immigrant women.9 In recent years, however, Hispanic fertility has fallen nationwide to levels more in line with other groups. A drop-off in immigration from Mexico played a major role in this drop as fertility for native-born Hispanics also decreased.10 Domestic migration and immigration from abroad influence states' overall birth trends.11 In Arizona, for example, the general fertility rate was down 31% from its 2001-2010 annual average, the largest overall reduction nationally. And among the state's large Hispanic population, it dropped nearly 50% from pre -Great Recession levels, exceeding nearly all other states' declines for Hispanic women.12 The bursting of the housing bubble and subsequent recession also hit Arizona's economy especially hard, further deterring births.13 Nationwide, teenage fertility rates have also fallen by more than half from a decade ago, pushing down overall fertility rates.14 A Pew Research Center report cited greater awareness about (and use of) effective contraception, an increase in the number of teenagers who report never having had sex, and the Great Recession as factors.15 For example, Colorado— another state with one of the largest overall declines —experienced an especially sharp reduction in teenage births from its average over the decade ending in 2010. The state reported that a major investment in expanding access to long -acting reversible contraceptives, as well as operational support for family planning services, helped drive the decrease.16 In addition to the reduction in teen births, the State Demography Office has attributed Colorado's overall drop in fertility to high unemployment during the Great Recession, a slowdown in international migration to the state, and women delaying childbirth to pursue education.17 A litany of other socioeconomic factors further explains the changing makeup of American 3 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long ,Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... families. In a recent Journal of Economic Perspectives article, researchers speculated that lower fertility rates reflected "broad societal changes that are hard to measure or quantify."18 Among the cultural shifts affecting fertility rates, one of the more prominent changes has been Americans delaying or forgoing marriage. Women are marrying later in life, and birth rates for single women are less than half that of those who are married.19 Women are also delaying having children until later in life —part of the reason why fertility rates have dropped among women in their 20s, which has more than offset increases for women in their late 30s and 40s.20 A recent analysis by the Brookings Institution projected that for young women today, the average number of children they have over their lifetimes would fall compared with the average number for women in prior generations.21 A recent Pew Research Center survey found an increasing share of U.S. adults without children reporting they were unlikely to ever have children.22 After Arizona, states experiencing the largest fertility rate reductions from their 2001-2010 averages include Utah (-30.4%), Colorado (-25.1%), New Mexico (-25%), and Oregon and California (-24.6% each).23 Nearly All States Sustain Large Fertility Rate Declines Change in 2020 general fertility rate from 2001 to 2010 annual averages Arizona Utah Colorado New Mexico California Oregon Nevada Idaho Texas Georgia Wyoming Illinois Montana Florida United States Massachusetts Oklahoma Washington Kansas North Carolina Hawaii Connecticut South Carolina Mississippi Alaska Vermont Virginia Arkansas Delaware 4 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pevvtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... Nebraska Wisconsin Rhode Island South Dakota New Hampshire Missouri Indiana New York Michigan Tennessee Iowa Ohio New Jersey Maine Maryland Louisiana West Virginia Kentucky Pennsylvania Alabama North Dakota ratangISNSMOSSAMOMOVAinall ' 7 1•111 IIIUQ "or* PittAi 0,,,,PiWii , f,11, 'it, ' 1 , '‘,1 ittp 1,1pdelp ' Pit ' ' ts;titp7/1 t* ' !sitti ' 44'1'.'f'7,0i1V07‘,1:,,,(;;Appifitil'Ik tilt"- ,0,y4rIttg 0 ilptiPA 4,,,toptS:ln,i,;,ta/' titimpl,pol!,:gitt"ott".,* '71P14''‘15134•Alk' , f vipi k:: ilir!;(1!131A1):7;!Sit ill it° eiri:'hAcr 1,,,,,,,x6( tiv •i,,'., ,,i,,,,:i.4. .,,,,,,,,i,.,.., ::,,,,,,,,,,1,7t,<,.,:;,4 joi 1,ft a0 Source: Pew calculations of data from CDC National Center for Health Statistics reports. Rates reflect births per 1,000 women ages 15-44. «) 2022 The Pew Charitable Trusts It's worth noting that many states with the largest declines still maintained relatively strong overall population growth because of migration. The total number of births statewide similarly didn't decline nearly as sharply as the general fertility rate in Nevada, Utah, and some other states that women of childbearing age are moving to. The lone state with fertility rates above where they were a decade ago was North Dakota, where improved economic conditions resulting from an oil boom helped to increase the birth rate.24 But its rate, too, has started to tick down more recently. In 2020, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska recorded the highest annual fertility rates. Conversely, Northeastern states reported the lowest fertility levels, as has historically been the case. More recent provisional figures published by the CDC for 2021 showed a slight uptick in the national fertility rate —the first in seven years.25 However, the annual increase was a mere 1%, while total births were still lower than any other year since 1983.26 Officials said births rose throughout the year, reflecting families who postponed having children earlier in the pandemic.27 o to ill i uence sus • ets Although many of fertility's short-term fiscal effects —such as reducing the cost of education 5 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... and children's health care —should be positive for state balance sheets, in the longer term the decline could lead to a decrease in major revenue streams, mirroring reductions in the labor force.28 In fact, ratings agencies, which take states' demographics into account when establishing credit ratings, have cited slow population growth in ratings downgrades.29 In their recent budget proposals or revenue forecasts, several states noted declining fertility. California Governor Gavin Newsom's fiscal 2023 budget proposal, for instance, called out the combination of early retirements that have taken place during the pandemic and lower fertility and migration rates: "With rising cost of living and an already tight housing market, it could become increasingly difficult for the remaining working -age Californians to support the aging population."3° The following section assesses the potential effects of low fertility on different areas of revenue and spending, independent of other demographic trends and any policy responses. Revenue Low fertility is likely to affect several major revenue streams in the coming decades. Just how susceptible states' revenues are to low fertility varies based on their tax structures; states more dependent on individual income taxes generally face greater risks than those that generate substantial revenue from sources —such as severance taxes levied on the extraction of natural resources and corporate income taxes —that are less affected by population growth.31 States that experience an influx of new residents from other states or abroad are better positioned to preserve their tax bases than those who are losing residents. For example, in a report issued in 2019, the Montana Legislative Fiscal Division report noted that the state may eventually need workers to move there to fill entry-level jobs.32 Today, low fertility is boosting labor force participation among women, supporting greater state income tax collections.33 However, because women are having fewer children than women in previous years, eventually there could be fewer workers paying income taxes. Colorado's economic and fiscal outlook published in March, for example, projected that low birth rates would begin to affect the state's labor force in five to six years.34 How much income taxes decline over the long term as a result will depend, in part, on how well employers are able to fill positions that are typically held by younger workers or vacated by retirees. A paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in late 2013 estimated that projected demographic changes from 2011 to 2030, which also reflect aging populations, would collectively reduce per capita state individual income tax revenue by 2.4% nationally, with the effects on future sales tax collections projected to be Tess severe.35 But sales tax reductions as a consequence of reduced fertility still pose a long-term risk in 6 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... states that rely heavily on sales taxes, which account for nearly half of states' total tax revenue.36 In fiscal 2020, sales taxes accounted for at least three-quarters of all tax revenue in Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington, according to Census Bureau data.37 In any case, the greatest effects of low fertility won't be felt for several decades, when today's children reach an age that they'll be spending more and paying significant income taxes.38 In addition to leading to a possible decline in tax revenue, the drop in fertility could reduce states' federal funding. Several major federal programs —including Title I grants and other education programs, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and Head Start39—allocate money to states according to formulas that incorporate population counts. Fortunately for most states, these federal dollars are distributed proportionately, so the fact that fertility is relatively low everywhere should mitigate states' losses. Those states with greater declines in their birth rates, though, may see their funding reduced disproportionately to other states. Trends in fertility will also influence property taxes, a major source of revenue for many school districts and local governments. The Vermont Legislature's Tax Structure Commission expects a trend toward smaller households to also lower the assessed values of larger homes, reducing property tax revenue funding for education 40 Officials in the state —which has had the nation's lowest fertility rate for the past several years —have explored ways to address the issue. In May, lawmakers passed a child tax credit aimed in part at making it more affordable to start a family.41 Spending On the spending side, fewer children should yield states near -term cost savings in several areas, especially education and health care. For education, states typically allocate money to school districts, at least in part based on enrollment.42 In Minnesota, for example, expected declines in enrollment led the state to cut its February budget forecast for its main category of general fund education expenditures by 2.3% from prior end -of -session projections.43 Enrollment across most states is expected to drop. Recent projections published by the National Center for Education Statistics show total U.S. public elementary and secondary school enrollment will fall 4.4% from 2021 to 2030, partially because of lower fertility.44 States with the top projected public school enrollment declines include West Virginia (-19.9%), Mississippi (-17.5%), New Mexico (-16.8%), New Hampshire (-14.9%), and Vermont (-11.2%)45 On the flip side, falling enrollment means that school districts will receive less money from the federal and state governments. Although having fewer students will also lower some costs, many of a school district's expenses are fixed —so funding cuts resulting 7 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://wvvw.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... from enrollment declines could pose financial hurdles.46 Share ij Student Enrollment Expected to Fall Across Most States Projected change in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, 2021-2030 WA OR CA AK Kam Loss exceeding -10% 04,mq 4tRigiNg4* .4444VNVII ON00,46. OgkiaN Gains exceeding 5% NV ID MT HI -10% to <-5% MI OH IL IN PA VA KY TN NC U.S. 2021-2030 projected change -5% to <0% 0% to 5% Show Data Table Sc FL Embed ME pa MA RI CT NJ DE MD OC meNgirA hAdulte Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2022 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 203.20 Copyright © 2025 The Pew Charitable Trusts. All rights reserved. Low fertility since the Great Recession could similarly help to limit college enrollment costs in the coming decades.47 Higher education accounted for nearly 9% of total state government expenditures in fiscal 2021 and serves as a critical economic driver for college towns.48 Another major line item in state budgets benefitting from low fertility is health spending, 8 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Term Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... particularly Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program costs. Medicaid alone accounts for more than a quarter of total state government spending.49 Fewer births will help limit these costs, although states' savings will likely be greatly offset by much higher expenses stemming from the country's aging population. In particular, drastic reductions in teenage pregnancies in recent decades have especially helped limit costs because teen mothers rely on publicly funded health care more than non - teenage mothers.50 About 78% of teenagers who gave birth in 2020 financed their deliveries via Medicaid, nearly twice the rate of mothers age 20 and older, for example.51 And several other public programs —including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and housing assistance —also serve a higher proportion of teenage mothers and their children than nonteenage mothers. Additionally, teen mothers are more than twice as likely as older parents to have their children placed in foster care, and boys born to teenage mothers are similarly more than twice as likely to end up in prison.52 One study estimated that prison costs nationwide would drop by $5.3 billion annually if the incarceration rate for sons of teen mothers matched that of the sons of women who gave birth in their early 20s.53 Revenue and spending caps Some states have adopted tax and expenditure limits (TELs) prohibiting annual revenue or spending from exceeding caps set by formulas. TEL formulas frequently incorporate population figures as well as inflation, and other economic measures.54 When fewer babies are born, revenue or spending limits for states with population -based formulas are effectively lower than they would have otherwise been. One of the more prominent TELs is Colorado's Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR). The TABOR amendment of the state constitution limits most sources of government revenue from exceeding the percentage change in the state population for the prior year plus the Denver metro area's inflation rate.55 A recent forecast published by the Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting noted population growth was slowing largely because of declining birth rates, lowering the state's allowable revenue stipulated by TABOR.56 Uncertainty ahead for state budgets In the coming years, the degree to which the fertility rate reshapes state budgets will hinge on multiple issues affecting the total population. Several states' total populations were already declining prior to the pandemic, and a third of states lost residents last year.57 If there's an X-factor in determining states' future demographics, it's migration. States can overcome reduced fertility levels by attracting residents from other states or abroad to boost their overall populations and add to their tax base. For instance, last year, deaths exceeded births in half of states, but migration easily offset the losses in states such as South Carolina 9 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long:Term Decline in Fertility —and at It Means for State Bu... hUps://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... and Tennessee.58 States are also contending with additional costs from increasing populations of older adults as well as Baby Boomers exiting the workforce. Although birth rates started falling around the beginning of the Great Recession, changes in the population of children since then pale in comparison to the rapidly growing number of Americans in their 60s and 70s. The aging of the population could further limit revenue growth and add to fiscal uncertainty, as discussed in a previous report commissioned by Pew.59 remen A Popul on Gr ing pidly Change in population by single year of age from pre -Great Recession estimates (2007) -21 population change 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% -20% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+ Source: Pew calculations of 2021 and 2007 'Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex" published by U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division (.0 2022 The Pew Charitable Trusts Future trends in fertility are difficult for states to project. Oregon, for example, in 2020 estimated its deaths wouldn't exceed births until after 2025, but now reports that the inversion already occurred as a result of the pandemic.° There's also much uncertainty around how, over the long term, low fertility rates will influence labor force productivity, women in the workforce, and other issues. 10 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM The Long -Tenn Decline in Fertility —and What It Means for State Bu... https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/... Conclusion The historic decline in fertility will touch nearly every area of state budgets in the coming years. Some fiscal effects have already emerged, while others will be relatively minor or won't be felt for decades. The implications for individual states vary: Those with shrinking workforces that rely more than other states on taxes sensitive to population declines —such as income and sales taxes —are especially vulnerable to budget pressures. Other demographic shifts such as migration will also affect many sources of revenue and spending. Today, most states find themselves in a relatively healthy fiscal position, with many enjoying robust budget surpluses.61 Fewer births in recent years have contributed appreciable cost savings. If low fertility persists, however, states will need to look more for other ways to grow their tax bases or they could face challenges over the long term. et odology References to the fertility rate in this report refer to the general fertility rate, or number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44. The most recent state -level rates published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics cover 2020. Rates for 2020 were compared to each state's average annual rate from 2001 to 2010, compiled from annual reports and tables provided by CDC. While the general fertility rate is not influenced by the size of the total population, it is affected by fluctuations in the age distribution of women in their childbearing years. It is one of several measures states frequently use in tracking fertility trends. Additional demographic trends affecting the total population, such as migration and life expectancy, should also be considered in any assessment of a state's long-term fiscal outlook. ndnotes 1. A. Linn, "Weak Economy Means Fewer Babies (at Least for Now)," USA Today, July 9, 2013, https://wwwotoday.com/money/weak-economy-means-fewer-babies-least- now-6c1d1i471907; A. Morse, "Stable Fertility Rates 1990-2019 Mask Distinct Variations by Age," U.S. Census Bureau, accessed June 15, 2022, https://www.census.gov/library/ stories/2022/04/fertility-rates-declined-for-younger-women-increased-for-older- women.html; A.H. Munnell, A. Chen, and G.T. Sanzenbacher, "Is the Drop in Fertility Temporary or Permanent?" (Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, 2018), https://crr.bc.edu/briefs/is-the-drop-in-fertility-temporary-or-permanent/. 2. M.J.K. Osterman et al., "Births: Final Data for 2020" (National Center for Health Statistics, 2022), https://dx.doi.org/1a15620/cdc:112078. 3. J. Schachter, P. Borsella, and A. Knapp, "New Population Estimates Show COVID-19 11 of 17 3/26/2025, 11:17 PM REQUEST FOR APPEARANCE BEFORE CITY COUNCIL SOLICITUD PARA COMPARECER ANTE EL CONCEJO MUNICIPAL REQUIRED (OBLIGATORIO) NAME (Nombre): ,it�� �' a3.� e AGENDA ITEM NUMBER(S) OR CITY TOPIC YOU WISH Tq �SPPEAK T (Numero(s) del tema de !a agenda o asunto de la ciudad que desea hablar sobre): (-��' �(---r(L-t - i `. 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